Dodgers’ Will Smith rookie card

Topps Chrome Update is a retail-only product, with 100 base cards per set. There’s no autograph guaranteed per box. However, it’s still a good way to collect some notable rookie such as Will Smith, Keston Hiura and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. The first time I saw this series was last year. It’s not that attractive to me, but I would like to get some cool rookie cards. I got Will Smith and Keston Hiura. For me, that’s good enough.

Will Smith was called up in May and made his debut on May 28. His first career home run was just a few days later when the Dodgers played against the Phillies. It was a walk-off HR. His rookie year was impressive, hitting 15 home runs and his OPS was .907. In 1993, Mike Piazza received the NL Rookie of the Year award, his OPS was .932. Will Smith showed he can hit, but he seemed to hit the rookie wall during September and he struggled in the NLDS with only 1 hit.

So let’s see what happened last September.

xwOBA

Numbers in July look tremendous. The reality was that he was re-called up from the OKC Dodgers in late July and only played 4 games. He hit 2 home runs and had 9 RBIs in those 4 games. In September, his xwOBA dropped dramatically.

Hard Hit (%)

Against Fastballs, Will Smith’s hard hit rate is still more than 40% in September. At the same time, his hard hit rate against Offspeed pitches is a bit better. However, no hard hit against Breaking balls.

Swing & Miss (%)

Will Smith’s swing and miss % against Fastballs and Breaking balls were actually going down, but against Offspeed pitches, his swing & miss went from 20% to 37.5%.

In Zone Swing (%)

When facing In Zone Offspeed pitches and Breaking balls, Will Smith just swung. However, he swung less against Fastballs.

Chase (%)

Will Smith chased more frequently against Breaking balls and Offspeed pitches.

It is quite usual to see an MLB player hit the rookie wall in their first season. Will Smith appeared to hit the wall last September. Andre Ethier, who wore No.16 as well, did hit the rookie wall, resulting BA .132 in the last month of his rookie season. Overcoming the slump, then Andre Ethier became an iconic Dodger player.

Spring Training

Will Smith (2019)		Will Smith (2020)
12	G	9
21	AB	21
3	H	3
0	HR	0
.143	BA	.143
.351	OPS	.518

In the same ABs in 2019 and 2020 spring training, Will Smith collected exact 3 hits so far. His BA is only .143, but the good thing is that 2 of the hits were extra base hits in 2020 spring training. Will Smith might still have a lot to do to convince Dodger coaching staffs that he’s ready for the season. Well, we still have to wait for a while to know if there’s baseball this year.