What if?- Andre Ethier

Andre Ethier (2015)

Bottom of the 6^th inning, men on first and second, 1-1 count, 97-mph fastball, Andre Ethier swung and hit a ground ball to the right field. The Dodgers scored the only run in the game 7 of the World Series 2017. That was Ethier’s last AB as a Dodger.

Drafted by the Oakland Athletics in 2003 and acquired by the Dodgers from a trade featuring Milton Bradley and Antonio Perez, Andre Ethier made his major league debut in 2006. He was called up in May, 2006. He hit above .300 each of the first 4 months and was a strong candidate for the rookie of the year award before hitting the rookie wall in September. He hit only .132 in September/October.

Looking back some moments at his career, the 30-game hitting streak was one of the great achievements. How special is it?

Player	Team	Games	Year(s)
Jimmy Rollins	Philadelphia Phillies	38 (36)	2005–06
Luis Castillo	Florida Marlins	35	2002
Chase Utley	Philadelphia Phillies	35	2006
Dan Uggla	Atlanta Braves	33	2011
Whit Merrifield	Kansas City Royals	31 (11)	2018-19
Albert Pujols	St. Louis Cardinals	30	2003
Willy Taveras	Houston Astros	30	2006
Moisés Alou	New York Mets	30	2007
Ryan Zimmerman	Washington Nationals	30	2009
Andre Ethier	Los Angeles Dodgers	30	2011
Freddie Freeman	Atlanta Braves	30	2016

There are only 11 players who had at least 30 games hitting streak since 2000. Meanwhile, there are 55 no-hitters since 2000. Being consistent is important for MLB players, at the same time, you must keep good mentality to catch the opportunities at every 3 or 4 at bats everyday. And we do see MVPs and future Hall of Famers on the list. Thus, I somehow think about something. How good is Andre Ethier? What if those injuries (broken right tibia and lumbar disk herniation) did not happen in 2016 and 2017?

Let’s turn back the clock. After a discouraging 2014, a year that Ethier played only 130 games and hit only .249/.322/.370 with 4 home runs and 42 RBIs, he bounced back when the Dodgers needed him in 2015. His BA was .294 with OPS .852. On August 2, against the Angels, Ethier hit his 7^th walk-off Home run, the 14^th walk-off hit in his career. 14 walk-off hits are the 2^nd most in the Dodgers franchise. Playing 142 games in 2015, Ethier’s xwOBA was .366, top 10% of the league, higher than his teammate Adrian Gonzalez and future Hall of Famer Adrian Beltre (Rangers).

xwOBA (2015)

Rank	Player	xwOBA
1	Miguel Cabrera	.431
2	Mike Trout	.423
3	Joey Votto	.421
4	Bryce Harper	.417
5	Freddie Freeman	.416
6	David Ortiz	.416
7	Paul Goldschmidt	.400
8	Chris Davis	.398
9	Andre McCutchen	.398
10	Josh Donaldson	.391
11	J.D. Martinez	.388
12	Edwin Encarnacion	.387
13	Matt Carpenter	.384
14	Jose Bautista	.384
15	Anthony Rizzo	.380
16	Ryan Braun	.379
17	Nelson Cruz	.379
18	Yoenis Cespedes	.377
19	Justin Turner	.374
20	Buster Posey	.374
21	Kendrys Morales	.372
22	Ryan Zimmerman	.371
23	Lorenzo Cain	.370
24	Mark Teixeria	.369
25	Lucas Duda	.368
26	Andre Ethier	.366
27	Eric Hosmer	.366
28	Adrian Gonzalez	.365
29	Brandon Belt	.364
30	Adrian Beltre	.364

In 2016 spring training, Ethier seems to have a pretty good spring. Dave Roberts placed him to bat first because Ethier can get on base. Indeed, he can, Ethier’s OBP was .517 and was batting .435 in the spring training. It seemed that Ethier was ready for the new season and new role given to him. However, he fouled ball of shin and missed 160 days in 2016 regular season. Then the back injury bothered him in 2017 and he missed 153 days that season.

wRC+ (2006-2015)

Rank	Player	wRC+ (Min PA: 2,000)
1	Mike Trout	166
2	Miguel Cabrera	158
#
47	Ryan Howard	123
48	Vladimir Guerrero	123
49	Andre Ethier	123
50	Carlos Santana	123
51	Troy Tulowitzki	123
52	Milton Bradley	123
53	Victor Martinez	123

wRC+ (2006-2017)

Rank	Player	wRC+ (Min PA: 2,500)
1	Mike Trout	169
2	Joey Votto	158
#
50	Andre Ethier	122
51	Josh Willingham	122
52	Derrek Lee	122
53	Aramis Ramirez	122
54	Christian Yelich	122
55	Matt Kemp	122

From 2006 to 2015, Ether’s wRC+ was 123, top 50 in the league. In these 10 years, he proved that he’s a good hitter and he did contribute to the Dodgers lineup. In 2016 and 2017, Ethier’s wRC+ was 63 and 95 each. However, Ethier’s career wRC+ was 122. Derek Jeter was voted into the baseball Hall of Fame 2020 and his career wRC+ was 119. 2006 AL MVP Justin Morneau, his career wRC+ was 116.

Injuries are always tough. If Ethier didn’t suffer the injuries, he could probably reach some milestones such as 700 RBIs and 1500 hits, or maybe he would reunite with great teammate Matt Kemp again in 2018. But, he never played again after the RBI single in the World Series 2017 Game 7.