Some ideas: Total Bases Created

In baseball, total bases refer to the number of bases gained by a batter through his hits. Only bases attained from hits count. I was thinking about a question. When a hitter is at bat, how many bases should we expect that he would reach each time?   A player can reach base safely by hits, walks or hit by pitch. So, on-base percentage (OBP) is the ratio of the batter's times-on-base (TOB) (the sum of hits, walks, and times hit by pitch) to their number of plate appearances. To understand how many bases a player could reach per plate appearance, I define “Total Bases Created (TBC)” and “Bases Created Average (BCA)”. TBC is the number of bases gained by a hitter through hits, walks and hit by pitches.

The formula for “Total Bases Created” is simple,   

Total Bases Created (TBC) = TB+BB+HBP

Meanwhile, the formula for “Bases Created Average” is not complicated, “Total Bases Created” divided by the total number of plate appearances (PA),

Bases Created Average (BCA) = (TB+BB+HBP)/PA

Using the TBC formula, Alex Bregman led in TBC in the 2019 season. National League MVP Cody Bellinger ranks 2nd. Mike Trout is behind Marcus Semien since Trout only played 134 games last season due to injury.  

Player	TBC (2019)
Alex Bregman	456
Cody Bellinger	449
Pete Alonso	441
Marcus Semien	432
Mike Trout	429
Freddie Freeman	421
Xander Bogaerts	419
Anthony Rendon	418
Jorge Soler	418
Christian Yelich	416

Using TBC, we can see players who can hit long balls and extra hits, at the same time, stay disciplined and patient to draw walks. Rafael Devers led in total bases (TB) last season, however, he drew only 48 walks in 702 plate appearances. Alex Bregman walked 119 times, leading the league. Hitting long balls or extra base hits is really exciting, nonetheless, a hitter that can avoid making an out would also benefit a team.

Player	TB (2019)
Rafael Devers	359
Cody Bellinger	351
Pete Alonso	348
Marcus Semien	343
Nolan Arenado	343
Xander Bogaerts	341
Ketel Marte	337
Jorge Soler	335
Charlie Blackmon	334
Eugenio Suarez	329

Every time, when a player is at bat, it’s always a unique opportunity to contribute to a team. To win a game, it’s better to score more runs. In order to score more runs, a team should have more players on bases or simply its players hit more home runs.

If a player can get on base and get more bases, that will increase a team’s possibility to score. I use Bases Created Average (BCA) to see how many bases a player can get/reach in each plate appearance. Christian Yelich ranked 1st in Bases Created Average (BCA). Yordan Alvarez was the 2019 AL Rookie of the Year and his BCA ranked 3rd.

Player	BCA (2019) (Min PA: 300)
Christian Yelich	.717
Mike Trout	.715
Yordan Alvarez	.702
Cody Bellinger	.679
Nelson Cruz	.678
Mitch Garver	.674
Alex Bregman	.661
Anthony Rendon	.647
George Springer	.640
Peter Alonso	.636

Again, hitting home runs can help a team score, drawing more walks can increase a team’s possibility to score. Total bases refer to the number a player gained through his hits. This somehow ignores a player’s plate discipline and drawing more walks can definitely help a team as well. Using Bases Created Average (BCA) can help us evaluate a player’s performance at bat. Great players such as Mike Trout and Cody Bellinger can not only hit long balls but also have great plate discipline to draw walks. If a player can get more bases in each plate appearance, that will be a good signal for a team to score more runs.