7/31/2020

Blevins’ curve is good


Jerry Blevins made his MLB debut with the Oakland Athletics on September 16, 2007. He has pitched 609 games, only 1 start that he was the opener for the Mets on June 24, 2018. He’s exclusively used as a relief pitcher, in particular, as a LOOGY (Left-handed One Out Guy). I saw him on the mound in the 2007 IBAF Baseball World Cup when he pitched for the team USA.

Recently, I listened to a podcast. Blevins indicated that curveball is his best pitch no matter whether he's pitching against left-handed batters or right-handed batters. Thus, I went to the statcast website to see how effective his curveball is.


In 2019, Blevins threw 3 different pitches, curve, four-seamer and changeup. From 2008 to 2016, the primary weapon was his sinker and he also threw sliders. Earlier in Blevins’ career, curveball was less than 30% of pitches, in particular, only 11.7% in 2012. However, he threw curveballs more often since he was traded to the New York Mets in 2015, but he only threw 55 pitches in the 2015 season due to injury.



Blevins’ curve seems to be very effective in his career. Every season, batters hit below .240 against his curve. There are 7 seasons (2015 season not included) that batters hit below .200 against his curve.


Against left-handed batters, it’s obvious that Blevins’ curve is a great weapon. Only in 2010 and 2018, batters hit higher than .200 against his curve. Against right-handed batters, Blevins’ curve still works. There are 7 seasons that right-handed batters hit below .250 against his curve. Whether he pitches against left-handed batters or right-handed batters, Blevins’ curve seems to be quite effective and very consistent.


It’s not easy to hit Blevins’ curveball hard. Hart hit rate against his curveball is normally below 30%. Meanwhile, we see the hard hit rate against his 4-seamer is almost 50% last season.

Left-handed batters can’t hit Blevins’ curveball hard. In 2017 and 2019, the hard hit rate against Blevins’ curve was below 6%. Right-handers can hit his curve better, however, the hard hit rate was below 20% in 2017 and 2019.


xwOBA against Blevins’ curve usually stays below .300 from 2015 to 2019. xwOBA against his changeup was really like a roller-coaster. xwOBA against his 4-seamer rose to almost. 500 and it truly showed the importance of his curveball.



Left-handed batters’ xwOBA aginst Blevins’ curve usually stays below .300 in the last 5 seasons. Against right-handed batters, xwOBA was higher than .300 once in the last 4 seasons. His curveball is indeed his weapon and it could truly fool both right-handed batters and left-handed batters. It’s not easy to make high-quality contact against Blevins’ curveball.


Blevins signed a minor league deal with the San Francisco Giants in January 2020 and was invited to spring training. However, he was not in the 60-man player pool. We won’t have opportunities to watch his curveball this year. This season, MLB instituted a rule change that requires pitchers to either face a minimum of three batters in an appearance. This rule change will possibly cause a decline in the number of specialists -- such as "LOOGY". Blevins is mainly used as a LOOGY, but his curveball is actually effective against both right-handed batters and left-handed batters. We don’t know if Blevins will pitch in the big league next season, nevertheless, using his curveball effectively, he should be able to complete a one-inning job or maybe even longer. In 2019, Jerry Blevins made 45 appearances and 27 times he faced at least 3 batters.

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