8/14/2020

Some ideas: Total Bases Allowed and Bases Allowed Average


A couple weeks ago, I used bases created average to see whether a team can score more or would be in the playoff. This time, I try to apply this idea to pitching.

To make it clear, for the pitchers, it would be “Total Bases Allowed (TBA)” and “Bases Allowed Average (BAAv)”. Since we are extremely familiar with the other BAA (Batting Average Against), I call it BAAv to differentiate from BAA. The formula for “Total Bases Allowed” is simple,    Total Bases Allowed (TBA) = TB+BB+HBP Meanwhile, the formula for “Bases Allowed Average” is not complicated, “Total Bases Allowed” divided by the total number of plate appearances (PA), Bases Allowed Average (BAAv) = (TB+BB+HBP)/PA

I use “batting against” data on the baseball reference website since it’s very easy to use.

2015

Team

BAAv

Playoff

Pirates

0.411

Yes

Dodgers

0.414

Yes

Mets

0.414

Yes

Cardinals

0.414

Yes

Cubs

0.415

Yes

Nationals

0.421

X

Astros

0.426

Yes

Indians

0.431

X

Rays

0.434

X

Giants

0.439

X

Playoff: 6/10

It was 2015. Pittsburgh Pirates won 98 games, the Cubs won 97 games and the division title winner Cardinals won 100 games. NL central is really competitive with three great teams. Cardinals, Dodgers and Pirates each allowed fewer than 600 runs in the 2015 season. The top 5 teams on the list all clinched National League playoff berths.

2016

Team

BAAv

Playoff

Cubs

0.406

Yes

Dodgers

0.425

Yes

Nationals

0.425

Yes

Mets

0.436

Yes

Giants

0.436

Yes

Blue Jays

0.446

Yes

Cardinals

0.447

X

Red Sox

0.448

Yes

Indians

0.452

Yes

Marlins

0.452

X

Playoff: 8/10

2016 is the year for the Cubs. Their pitching staff were really solid, allowing only 556 runs, the only team allowed fewer than 600 runs in the 2016 season. Meanwhile, batters only hit .212 against Cubs pitchers. Again, the top 5 teams on the list all clinched National League playoff berths.

The Blue Jays allowed 666 runs, fewest in the American League.  

2017

Team

BAAv

Playoff

Indians

0.425

Yes

Dodgers

0.427

Yes

Yankees

0.436

Yes

Nationals

0.447

Yes

Diamondbacks

0.448

Yes

Red Sox

0.452

Yes

Rays

0.452

X

Cubs

0.455

Yes

Cardinals

0.459

X

Astros

0.462

Yes

Total: 8/10

Cleveland Indians and Los Angeles Dodgers each allowed 564 runs and 580 runs, the only two teams allowed fewer than 600 runs in the 2017 season. At the same time, they did not give up too many free passes. Indians pitchers only gave up 406 walks and Dodgers pitching staff gave up 442 walks, the only two teams gave up fewer than 450 walks.

Rays and Cardinals were the only teams that were on this chart, but not in the 2017 postseason.

2018

Team

BAAv

Playoff

Astros

0.409

Yes

Dodgers

0.425

Yes

Rays

0.431

X

Braves

0.436

Yes

Cardinals

0.437

X

Cubs

0.440

Yes

Athletics

0.441

Yes

Diamondbacks

0.442

X

Yankees

0.442

Yes

Brewers

0.443

Yes

Playoff: 7/10

Astros pitching performance was really good in 2018, allowing only 534 runs, the only team allowed fewer than 600 runs. We see the Rays in the top 3, however, the team was not in the 2018 playoff. Led by Cy Young winner Blake Snell, we can say that the Rays pitching staff did a good job.
Batting average against Braves pitchers was only .229, it’s the second lowest in the league. The Braves returned to the playoff for the first time since 2013. Also, the Brewers returned to the playoff for the first time since 2011 and Oakland Athletics’ moneyball 2.0 story began.

2019

Team

BAAv

Playoff

Dodgers

0.423

Yes

Rays

0.435

Yes

Astros

0.444

Yes

Athletics

0.452

Yes

Cardinals

0.454

Yes

Twins

0.463

Yes

Reds

0.463

X

Nationals

0.463

Yes

Indians

0.465

X

Mets

0.466

X

Playoff: 7/10

No teams allowed fewer than 600 runs last season. The Dodgers allowed 613 runs, fewest in the league. Great pitching depth is the key for the Rays to return to the playoff for the first time since 2013. With the Cy Young winner Justin Verlander and runner-up Gerrit Cole, the Astros pitching staff were really solid. The top 6 on the chart were all in postseason berths. 2019 World Series Champions Washington Nationals were also on the chart.

In the last 5 seasons, the Dodgers were either the first or the second in BAAv. It certainly showed the great performance of their pitching staff. The good pitching depth was definitely their key factor to clinch the playoff berth and for long-term success. We also see that teams led in BAAv mostly secured their spots in the postseason.

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