According to MLB.com, a changeup is one of the slowest pitches thrown in baseball, and it is predicated on deception. A good changeup will cause a hitter to start his swing well before the pitch arrives, resulting in either a swing and miss or very weak contact. Many pitchers use changeup as part of their pitch arsenal. Which pitcher’s changeup is the most dangerous this season?
There’s no doubt to call Devin Williams the one of the most dominant relievers this season. His changeup has created a lot of swings and misses. A 17.2% swing and miss rate is highest in the majors. Lucas Giolito threw a no-hitter against the Pirates on August 25. His changeup generated 90 swings and misses in total so far this season, the most in the majors. The other two pitchers whose changeup creates more than 8% swing and miss are Tommy Milone and Zach Davies.
Devin Williams’ changeup is probably the most dominant changeup, hitters must be extremely frustrated when seeing his changeup, xwOBA against Williams’ changeup is only .101.
Kyle Hendricks tossed a complete game on the opening day this season and he’s been very reliable in the Cubs rotation. xwOBA against his changeup is 0.235.
The Minnesota Twins must be truly satisfied by acquiring Kenta Maeda since he’s pitching like a Twins’ ACE now. He’s throwing more changeups this season. Last season, 23.7% of his pitches were his changeups, the number reaching to almost 30% this season. xwOBA against Maeda’s changeup is 0.236. He throws more changeups than fastballs this season.
Luis Castillo can consistently throw a fastball over 97mph. However he decides to throw more changeups than fastballs this season. xwOBA against his changeup is below .250 this season.
Aaron Nola is another pitcher to throw more changeups and less fourseamers. 29% of his pitches are changeups, it was 18.6% last season.
Luis Castillo throws a changeup that is close to 90 mph and Aaron Nola’s changeup is 85 mph on average.
Kyle Hendricks, Zach Davies and Tommy Milone throw a traditional slow changeup, the average changeup velocity is below 80 mph.
Devin Williams’ changeup generates a lot of spins, the 2846 rpm is much higher than other pitchers’ changeups. Kyle Hendricks’ changeup spins at a rate of 2067 rpm, the other pitcher who throws a changeup with over 2000 rpm. Most of these pitchers’ changeups spin at a rate below 2000 rpm. Lucas Giolito’s changeup does not spin that much, spinning at a rate lower than 1500 rpm.
A changeup is one of the slowest pitches thrown in baseball. Here we see at least 7.2 mph speed difference between fastball and changeup. Well, some pitchers throw a changeup fast and it also creates very good outcomes. Meanwhile, most pitchers throw a changeup at a spin rate below 2000 rpm. However, we also see that Devin Williams’ over 2800-rpm changeup fools the major league hitters.
Devin Williams’ 4-seamer is at 96.5 mph on average, the speed differential between his 4-seamer and changeup is more than 10 mph. The speed differential between Lucas Giolito’s 4-seamer and changeup is 13.1 mph, that difference does really fool a hitter if he’s ready for a fastball.
Zack Davies and Kyle Hendricks both throw a lot of under-90mph sinkers, effectively mixing with changeups under 80 mph.
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