Hard-hit outs

According to MLB.com, a batted ball with an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher is a hard-hit ball. Hard-hit balls usually produce good outcomes. But not all hard-hit balls produce good outcomes.

Fernando Tatis Jr.’s hard-hit rate was 62.2% last season, leading the majors. But 48 hard-hit balls were outs. According to statcast, xwOBA of these 48 outs was .410 and average exit velocity was over 101mph. Tatis is not the only shortstop in the chart. Francisco Lindor who was just traded to the Mets and Corey Seager each had 47 hard-hit outs last season. Lindor’s hard-hit rate in 2020 when he played for the Cleveland Indians was 41.1%, the highest hard-hit rate in his career. Lindor’s xwOBA of these 47 hard-hit outs was .438. Corey Seager’s hard-hit rate was 55.9%, 4th highest in the majors. His xwOBA of these 47 outs was .428. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was a top prospect and made his MLB debut on April 26, 2019. In the 2019 season, Guerrero’s hard-hit rate was 38.7%. Last season, he posted a hard-hit rate of 50.8%. However, 45 of Guerrero’s hard-hit balls were outs. xwOBA of these 45 hard-hit outs was .353 and average exit velocity was 103mph. Miguel Cabrera was batting .250 last season. Nonetheless, his hard-hit rate was 49.7%. Unfortunately, 43 of these hard-hit balls were outs. Hitting a baseball hard, in particular, a batted ball with an exit velocity of at least 95mph, usually gives you a good result. Nonetheless, other factors such as launch angle and batted ball direction will affect outcomes.

We might say that hitters are unlucky when a hard-hit ball becomes an out or is caught by an infielder or an outfielder. On the contrary, we might say that a pitcher could be lucky when a hard-hit ball is caught by his teammate and there is no damage. Rockies’ pitcher German Marquez tossed 81.2 innings last season, leading the NL. Against him, batters hit 100 hard-hit balls and the hard-hit rate against Marquez was 40.2%. Last season, 54 of these hard-hit balls given up by Marquez were outs. Framber Valdez made 10 starts in 2020, hard-hit rate against him was 48.7%, second highest in the majors. However, 53 hard-hit balls were outs and did not have huge damages. Antonio Senzatela posted a 3.44 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 2020, both were the best in his career so far. Hard-hit rate against Senzatela dropped from 44% to 38.3% and 44 of the hard-hit balls were outs last year. Patrick Corbin and Jon Lester are going to be teammates in 2021 since Lester reached agreement on a 1-year deal with the Nationals. Last season, Corbin saw a rise in hard-rate, from 38.7% to 44.2%. At the same time, Lester also saw a rise in hard-rate, from 34.7% to 38.9%. They each had seen 43 hard-hit balls become outs in 2020. When a hard-hit ball becomes an out, a hitter or a pitcher will definitely have very different reactions. A hitter might be unhappy or frustrated since he already does what he could do, but he doesn’t have a desirable outcome. However, it’s a good thing to indicate that a batter makes good contact. Meanwhile, a pitcher might be relieved to see his teammate catch a hard-hit ball and has to be more cautious to locate his pitches.