3/12/2021

Swings outside the zone

 

When playing baseball, we are always taught to swing at pitches inside the strike zone. Nowadays, we can see several statistics such as o-swing% and z-swing% to evaluate a player’s plate discipline. However, there are still some players who love to swing at pitches out of the strike zone.


Swings out of zone (Min PA: 50, 2020)

Player

Swings

Hanser Alberto

213

Rafael Devers

203

Javier Baez

202

Nick Castellanos

199

Luis Robert

198

 

Last season, Hanser Alberto swung at pitches out of zone 213 times, leading the majors. He collected 17 hits while swinging outside the zone, however, his batting average was .173. Swinging outside the zone is not an ideal decision for him.

Rafael Devers swung at pitches outside the zone 203 times and, of these 203 swings, he collected 15 hits. His batting average was .181 when swinging outside the zone.

Javier Baez is known as a free-swing hitter. So it’s not a surprise to see him swing at pitches out of the strike zone. Baez also swung at pitches outside the zone more than 200 times and he had 10 hits.

Nick Castellanos made 199 swings at pitches outside the zone and had 14 hits. His batting average was .189 when swinging out of the strike zone.

Luis Robert was a top candidate for the Rookie of the Year award last season. However, he hit the rookie wall in September. He swung at pitches outside the zone 198 times and had 12 hits.


It seems that it’s not a very good idea to swing at pitches outside the zone. Nonetheless, some players are fine at hitting pitches out of the strike zone.


Batting Average

When swings out of zone (Min PA: 50, 2020)

Player

BA

Manny Machado

.274

Donovan Solano

.273

Whit Merrifield

.270

Alex Dickerson

.265

Eloy Jimenez

Tim Anderson

Mookie Betts

.250


Manny Machado posted a batting average of .274 when he swung at pitches outside the zone. Machado only swung outside the zone 118 times in 2020 and he collected 17 hits. Swing at pitches out of zone is not a problem for Machado.

Donovan Solano slashed .326/.365/.463 last season and it was a great season for him. Solano had 62 hits in 2020. He swung at pitches out of the zone 139 times and had 15 hits.

Whit Merrifield was an All-Star in 2019 and in that season, he had 206 hits, leading the majors. In the 2020 season, Merrifield swung at pitches outside the zone 142 times and he had 17 hits.

Alex Dickerson swung at pitches out of zone 104 times and he had 13 hits. His batting average was .265 when swinging outside the zone.

While swinging at pitches outside the zone, Eloy Jimenez, Tim Anderson and Mookie Betts each posted a .250 batting average. However, there’s something different among them. Eloy Jimenez swung at pitches out of zone 171 times, Tim Anderson had 163 swings outside the zone and Mookie Betts only did it 108 times.


xwOBA

When swings out of zone (Min PA: 50, 2020)

Player

xwOBA

Cody Bellinger

.285

Freddie Freeman

.274

Whit Merrifield

.264

Anthony Santander

.251

Charlie Blackmon

.247


Additionally, let’s look at xwOBA. When swinging at pitches outside the zone, Cody Bellinger posted an xwOBA of .285 last season and Freddie Freeman’s xwOBA was .274. Bellinger won the 2019 National League MVP and Freeman was the 2020 NL MVP award winner. We see that only 4 players have an xwOBA above .250 while swinging at pitches out of zone. It could be obvious for one thing. It’s really hard to hit well when a player swings at pitches outside the zone.

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