A couple of days ago, we just saw which batters are good at hitting offspeed pitches this season. Now, let’s look at pitchers who throw great offspeed pitches. According to the statcast website, offspeed pitches include split-finger, changeup, forkball and screwball. Among these pitches, changeup is the most common one. So, let’s look at pitchers who throw changeups frequently and whose changeup is devastating.
By far, Lucas Giolito already threw more than 800 changeups and he threw more changeups than any other pitcher in the majors. Back in 2019, Giolito used 736 changeups in that season and he has been using changeups more than 30% of the time since then. Moreover, Luis Castillo uses his changeup nearly 30% of the time and he already threw more than 700 changeups. Additionally, Zach Davies also threw more than 700 changeups so far this season.
This season, Cesar Valdez uses his changeup more than 70% of the time, however, it doesn’t work well and he was sent to Norfolk Tides (Orioles’ Triple-A affiliate). Devin Williams was named the 2020 NL Rookie of the year and he used changeups 52.7% of the time last season. This year, Devin Williams throws his changeup more than 60% of the time. Moreover Nabil Crismatt uses changeups more than 50% of the time by far this season.
Changeup is one of the slowest pitches. However, some pitchers can throw changeups faster. Sandy Alcantara uses changeups 25.1% of the time and his changeup hits 91.7 mph on average. Average velocity of Luis Catillo’s changeup is 88.2 mph. It’s worth indicating that Alcantara and Castillo each throw fastballs that frequently hit over 97 mph. Furthermore, Ian Anderson’s changeup velocity is 88.1 mph on average. In addition, it’s quite interesting to see Zack Greinke on the list. The 2009 Cy Young has been in the big league for 18 years and his fastball velocity has dropped. Average velocity of Greinke’s four-seamer is less than 90 mph, however, his changeup is relatively faster than many pitchers’ changeup.
Devin Williams’ changeup is a rare one in the big league. Average spin rate of his changeup is over 2800 rpm and we don’t see any other pitchers throw changeups that hit at a spin rate of 2500+ rpm.
John Means’ changeup hits an average spin rate of 2259 rpm. Means tossed a no-hitter on May 5 and he threw 36 changeups that day. He punched out 12 batters and 6 strikeouts were via his changeup.
Moreover, Ryan Yarbrough, Kyle Hendricks and Sandy Alcantara each throw changeups that, on average, hit over 2000 rpm.
So, whose changeup truly frustrates batters?
Opponents only hit .167 against Devin Williams’ changeup. It’s surely one of the most difficult pitches for batters to collect a hit. Also, batting average against Ian Anderson’s changeup is under .200 and opponents hit only .194. Zack Greinke’s changeup is not easy for MLB batters since they just hit .206.
When we look at xwOBA, it seems that batters truly have problems at making good contact against Devin Williams’ changeup. Opponents only own a .217 xwOBA when Devin Williams throws his changeup. Zack Greinke and Lucas Giolito each let opponents have an under .240 xwOBA.
As we can see, Devin Williams has a high-spin changeup and it’s very difficult for MLB hitters to hit. Meanwhile, pitchers such as Zack Greinke throw an over-85-mph changeup that can also frustrate MLB batters.
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