Flame thrower throws slower

2021 Topps Fire is back with colorful designs. Fans can find retired players and current players in this set. Additionally, two autographs are guaranteed per hobby box. However, after reading the checklist, I found that there were no autographs from the Dodgers. This year, I bought some packs in a card store, trying to find some top rookies. I got some rookie cards, but an insert looks quite interesting. It’s a flame throwers insert of Walker Buehler. Walker Buehler was selected by the Dodgers in the first round of the 2015 draft and he made his debut on September 7, 2017. He made 8 relief appearances in 2017 and finished the season with a 7.71 ERA and a 2.04 WHIP. The next season, Buehler joined the Dodgers rotation, making 23 starts and 1 relief appearance. He earned 8 wins and posted a 2.62 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in 137.1 innings. In 2019, Walker Buehler became an All-Star and he finished the season with 14 wins, a 3.26 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. In 2020, Walker Buehler only made 8 starts in the shortened season, posting a 3.44 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in 36.2 innings. This season, Buehler was selected to the All-Star game again and he recorded 16 wins and owned a 2.47 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in a career high 207.2 innings. Walker Buehler has been one of the elite pitchers in the majors and this season, there’s an interesting change he made. He is a flame thrower and his pitches can hit triple digits. However, Buehler’s fastball velocity dropped during the regular season.

Back in 2017, Buehler’s sinker and 4-seamer each reached at least 98 mph, on average. From 2018 to 2020, average velocity of Buehler’s 4-seam fastball fell between 96 and 97 mph. His sinker velocity remained between 96 and 97 mph between 2018 and 2019. Last season, the average velocity of Buehler’s sinker was 97.2 mph and his sinker hit triple digits several times. However, average velocity of his sinker and four-seam fastball each dropped to 95.3 mph this season.

Well, does average fastball velocity drop cause some troubles? Let’s see batting average against Buehler first. This season, opponents only hit .199 against Buehler. Buehler uses 6 pitches this year, batting average against Buehler’s sinker was .241, highest among his 6 pitches used during the regular season. Thus, MLB batters actually can’t hit well against Buehler this year. Batting average against Buehler’s 4-seamer has remained under .210 since the 2018 season.

Now, let’s look at the quality of contact. Against Buehler’s four-seamer, opponents had a .330 xwOBA, second highest against his four-seamer in a single season in his career. However, Buehler didn’t let opponents make good contact with an under .300 xwOBA against other pitches during the 2021 regular season. In particular, xwOBA against Buhler’s slider and changeup each fell below .200. MLB batters might make better contact against Buehler’s four-seamer than they did in previous years. Nonetheless, all is still under control.

Moreover, let’s see Buehler’s pitch usage. Buehler used his four-seamer 44.5% of the time during the regular season, second lowest in his career so far. In addition, he threw more cutters this year, his cutter usage has increased gradually year by year. Furthermore, his changeup usage reached nearly 5% in 2021. He only threw his slider 7.3% of the time last season and his slider usage increased to 13.8% this year. Overall, four-seamer is still Walker Buehler’s major pitch, but the average pitch velocity dropped this season. Nonetheless, Buehler used his cutter more often during the regular season, moreover, he has good command in slider and curveball as we can see that opponents hit under .200 against his slider and curveball. Buehler has become a pitcher who throws more effectively and his pitches per inning pitched dropped to 15.18, lowest in his career so far.