A full count is an interesting moment to watch in baseball games and is considered a moment of increased tension. A pitcher has to do his best to throw a pitch to end an at bat.
I was browsing on the statcast website and tried to see what pitches are commonly used when pitch count is full.
Looking back at the 2021 season, it was quite common to see Tyler Mahle pitch in this situation. Mahle threw 219 pitches when the count was full. Among these 219 pitches, he threw his four-seam fastball 130 times. It’s not a surprise to see Mahle frequently use his four-seamer as a payoff pitch. During the regular season, Mahle threw his four-seamer more than 50% of the time.
In addition, Gerrit Cole and Lucas Giolito each threw 165 pitches when the pitch count was full. However, their choices to throw a payoff pitch were very different. Last year, Gerrit Cole mainly relied on his four-seamer when the pitch count was full. Cole threw his four-seamer as a payoff pitch 92 times in 2021. Nonetheless, Giolito preferred to throw his changeup when the pitch count was full. Last year, Giolito threw his changeup 80 times on a full count and he used his four-seamer 63 times when the count was full.
Moreover, on a full count, Lance Lynn’s “fastballs” are his best choice. In 2021, Lynn threw 164 pitches on a full count. When the pitch count was full, Lynn threw his four-seam fastball 68 times, he used his sinker 48 times and there were 35 times that he threw a cutter.
Furthermore, Dylan Cease threw 160 pitches on a full count last year. Among these 160 pitches, he used his four-seamer 91 times and threw his slider 56 times. Cease occasionally threw a changeup or a knuckle curve when the pitch count was full last year.
Finally, let’s look at two Cy Young winners. Robbie Ray, the 2021 AL Cy Young winner, threw 151 pitches on a full count last year. In this situation, Ray used his four-seamer 107 times and during the regular season, Ray threw his four-seamer nearly 60% of the time in 2021. The NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes threw 107 pitches on a full count last season. Cutter is the best choice for Burnes when the count is full. Last year, Corbin Burnes threw his cutter 91 times on a full count.
Normally, a pitcher has to carefully choose a payoff pitch to throw on a full count. With three balls already, if a pitcher misses the strike zone, it will result in ball four and a pitcher will give up a free pass. As we can see, a four-seam fastball was commonly thrown on a full count. Tyler Mahle and Gerrit Cole did trust their four-seamers last year. Robbie Ray trusts his four-seamer as well. However, some pitchers have different ideas on this situation. Lucas Gilito chose to believe that his changeup would create results he wanted. Corbin Burnes’ cutter usage increased from 31.5% to 52.3% and on a full count, you know what he’s going to throw.
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