At the beginning of the 2022 season, I listened to a podcast show and the host indicated that a pitcher’s fastball velocity dropped a lot, which might cause some concerns. After a long season, I’m just wondering which pitchers’ fastball velocity also drops.
To understand a little bit, I went to check on the statcast website.
Last season, Drew Rasmussen used his four-seam fastball 65.1% of the time and the average velocity of his four-seamer was 97.1 mph. But, this season, his four-seamer usage drops to 35.5% and the average velocity of his four-seam fastball is 95.5 mph. Moreover, Rasmussen uses his cutter nearly 33% of the time this season and his sinker usage is 3.8%. Average velocity of his cutter is 90.3 mph and his sinker’s velocity is nearly 95 mph, on average. Rasmussen barely used a sinker or a cutter last season. Increasing his cutter usage and sinker usage seems to be a great idea. He now owns a 2.84 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 146 innings.
Shane Bieber is another pitcher who decreases the usage of his four-seamer. He used his four-seamer 35.3% of the time in 2021 and the pitch velocity was 92.8 mph, on average. This season, the average velocity of his four-seamer drops to 91.3 mph. Bieber uses his four-seamer 34.4% of the time this season and opponents hit .292 against his four-seamer. It seems that velocity drop might cause some problems. However, Bieber increases his cutter usage from 3.2% to 16.6%. Velocity of Bieber’s cutter is 86.9 mph, on average. The 2020 AL Cy Young award winner has a 2.88 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP after making 31 starts for the Guardians.
Last season, Michael Kopech only made 4 starts. This season, Kopech already made 25 starts. As a starting pitcher, Kopech has to at least eat more innings, so it’s quite reasonable to see that he doesn’t throw that hard as he did as a reliever. Kopech used his four-seamer 64.4% of the time in 2021 and the average velocity was over 97 mph. In 2022, he uses his four-seamer 61.8% of the time and the pitch velocity drops to 94.9 mph, on average. Kopech’s four-seamer is quite effective since opponents’ batting average against his four-seamer is below .200.
Finally, Tyler Mahle used his four-seamer 53% of the time in 2021 and this season, the number drops to 51.6%. The average velocity of his four-seamer drops from 94 mph to 93.2 mph. It’s not a huge drop and actually, opponents only hit .205 against Mahle’s four-seamer this season. But, the problem might be his cutter, Mahle’s cutter usage increases from 4.4% to 12.9%. Additionally, the average velocity of his cutter drops from 86.7 mpg to 85.5 mph. Unfortunately, batting average against his cutter is .275.
Well, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander can still easily throw a fastball that touches 95 mph or faster at nearly 40. However, it’s extremely hard to see other pitchers do exactly the same. Fastball velocity drop might be easily seen when a pitcher is getting older. Changing pitch mix could be a way for a pitcher to pitch more effectively, for example, using other types of fastballs such as a cutter or a sinker. But, it might not always work for everyone.
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