Chase too much?

A few days ago, I was watching a baseball game on TV. During the game, I saw a batter swing at pitches out of the strike zone several times. He is a well-known hitter and I don’t remember whether his chase rate was high in 2022. After watching the game, I was just wondering which batter’s chase rate significantly increases this season.

To understand a little bit more, I went to check on the statcast website.

Chase Rate Changes (min PA: Qualified, ~2023.05.18)
Player	2022	2023	+
Nelson Cruz	31.1%	45.2%	14.1
Garrett Cooper	30.3%	42.6%	12.3
Yasmani Grandal	20.8%	30.5%	9.7
Luis Arraez	24.1%	32.1%	8
Taylor Ward	20.6%	28.3%	7.7
Jorge Polanco	25.2%	32.8%	7.6
Jose Abreu	29.8%	37.2%	7.4
Josh Rojas	19.9%	27.1%	7.2
Anthony Santander	32.5%	39.2%	6.7

Nelson Cruz made his MLB debut in 2005 and now, it’s his 19th season in the majors. By far, he has 400+ home runs and collects 1300+ RBI in his career. In January, he signed a 1-year contract with the Padres. Now, he hits .253/.274/.418 with 3 home runs and 16 RBI over 30 games. However, his chase rate is over 45% this year. Moreover, his strikeout rate increases from 23.5% to over 30%. From 2015 to 2022, his chase rate fell between 27.3% and 31.1%.

At the same time, Garrett Cooper currently slashes .271/.313/.411 with 3 home runs and 15 RBI across 28 games. Those numbers aren’t really bad. However, Cooper’s strikeout rate increases from 25.4% to 29.6%. Additionally, his walk rate drops from 8.5% to 5.2%. A good reason to tell us this change is that Cooper swings more pitches out of the strike zone this season.

In addition, Yasmani Grandal’s chase rate was 20.8% last season. Nonetheless, he swings at pitches out of the strike zone more often in 2023. Grandal’s chase rate is over 30% now. Back in 2017, Grandal was playing for the Dodgers and his chase rate was over 30%. In that season, he was struck out 130 times. Nonetheless, an interesting thing is that Luis Arraez’s chase rate reaches 32.1% this season, but his strikeout rate decreases from 7.1% to 5.5% this year.

Finally, Taylor Ward finished the 2022 season with an OPS of .833. It was the first time that he finished a season with an OPS over .800. Nevertheless, Ward now only slashes .236/.316/.333 with 4 homers and 16 RBI through 44 games. During these 44 games, Ward’s chase rate is 28.3%. Last year, his chase rate was 20.6%, which is the lowest in his career.

Plate discipline is always an important thing when a batter is at-bat. And, it’s extremely important to not frequently swing at pitches out of the strike zone. Nonetheless, it’s not easy to execute. As we can see, even veteran players who have played 10+ seasons in the majors can’t truly stay disciplined. Nelson Cruz has been playing 19 seasons in the majors. And, interestingly, his chase rate is over 40% by far this season and he only drew 2 walks. At age 42, Cruz posts an OPS below .700. Perhaps, when his chase rate goes down, the outcomes will be even better? Additionally, Garrett Cooper has an OPS over .700 at this moment. Nonetheless, if Cooper’s chase rate remains at over 40% during the regular season, can he still finish the season with an OPS over .700? Well, it’s the second month of the regular season. Let’s keep watching whether these players’ chase rate will go down later this season.