9/13/2023

Best changeup?


In mid-August, Clayton Kershaw was back from the IL. Without doubt, he’s one of the best pitchers in the majors. It’s always entertaining to watch him pitch. However, this time, things are getting more interesting. He threw changeups in the game. In the MLB, Kershaw’s slider and curveball are probably the 2 types of the most difficult pitches to hit. Now, he adds a changeup in his pitch arsenal. Well, he just begins to throw changeups. After watching the game, that makes me think about some questions.



Firstly, who frequently throws changeups this season?

Changeup % (min PA: Qualified, ~2023.09.12)

Player

%

Logan Webb

40.7

Kyle Hendricks

40

Tyler Anderson

33.9


Logan Webb’s changeup usage was 31.2% last season. In 2023, his changeup usage goes up to over 40%. The outcome of using changeups more frequently isn’t bad. Opponents only hit .223 against Webb’s changeup. Meanwhile, Kyle Hendricks’ changeup usage is 40% so far this season and his changeup works well with a .164 BAA. At the same time, Tyler Anderson relies on his changeup with throwing it more than 30% of the time. However, the outcome isn’t great this season. Opponents’ batting average against his changeup is .250. Last season, opponents only batted .179 against Anderson’s changeup.


In addition, whose changeup is faster?

 

Average Pitch Velocity
(Changeup, min Pitches: 400, ~2023.09.12)

Player

MPH

Edward Cabrera

92.8

Sandy Alcantara

91.1

Framber Valdez

90.2

Tommy Kahnle

88.9

Merrill Kelly

88.7

Jesus Luzardo

88.4

Pablo Lopez

88.3

Luis Castillo

88.3


Edward Cabrera uses his changeup more than 30% of the time and the average velocity of his change is over 92 mph. It’s not easy for opponents to hit. Opponents’ BA against his changeup is below .180. At the same time, Sandy Alcantara uses his changeup 27.3% of the time this season and the average velocity of his changeup is over 91 mph. However, opponents’ batting average against his changeup is over .280 so far this season. Furthermore, the average velocity of Framber Valdez’s changeup is over 90 mph. Opponents bat .204 against his changeup thus far in 2023.

Thirdly, whose changeup spins more?

 

Average Spin Rate
(Changeup, min Pitches: 400, ~2023.09.12)

Player

RPM

Devin Williams

2685

Trevor Richards

2574

Steven Matz

2306

Kyle Hendricks

2157

Merrill Kelly

2138


By far this season, Devin Williams already collected 30+ saves. He heavily relies on his changeup with a usage over 55%. His changeup spins at a rate over 2600 rpm, on average. Additionally, Trevor Richards already made 40+ relief appearances for the Blue Jays in 2023. His changeup usage is over 55% as well. His changeup spins at a rate over 2500 rpm, on average. Opponents only hit .154 against his changeup. Furthermore, Steven Matz uses his changeup more than 25% of the time this season. But, opponents’ batting average against his changeup is over .290. The average spin rate of his changeup is over 2300 rpm.


Finally, let’s take a look at whose changeup might be the most difficult one for MLB batters.

 

Batting Average Against
(Changeup, min Pitches: 400, ~2023.09.12)

Player

BAA

Devin Williams

.105

Shane McClanahan

.153

Trevor Richards

.154

Merrill Kelly

.164

Kyle Hendricks

.164

Edward Cabrera

.169


Since the 2020 season, Devin Williams has used his changeup more than 50% of the time. This season, his changeup is still his key pitch arsenal. Opponents only hit .105 against his changeup. In the meantime, Trevor Richards, Merrill Kelly and Kyle Hendricks each use changeups to fool many MLB batters. Shane McClanahan’s changeup is pretty good, but unfortunately, we won’t see him for a while because he's currently on the IL.

 

It's interesting to see Kershaw begin to throw a changeup and it will be interesting to see whether he will increase his changeup usage in the future. Nonetheless, in the majors, the most devastating changeup is probably Devin Williams’ changeup. The Brewers might clinch a spot in the postseason this year. And, perhaps, it will be worthwhile to see how he will use his changeup in the postseason for the first time in his career. 

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