4/26/2024

Chase rate over 40%?


A few weeks ago, I listened to a podcast show. In the show, a reporter indicated a player’s main problem last season. That player is an All-Star. However, in 2023, his chase rate was over 40%, which was really high.

 

That reporter demonstrated that the player certainly would like to improve his performance and during spring training, a key thing for that player is to lower his chase rate.

 

After listening to the show, I took a look at the statcast website to see how many players with a chase rate over 40% in 2023. Moreover, I began to think about a question. Do those players lower their chase rate in 2024?

 

Chase Rate (2023, min PA: Qualified)

Player

Chase %

Salvador Perez

47.0%

Javier Baez

44.0%

Eddie Rosario

43.5%

Ezequiel Tovar

42.0%

Nick Castellanos

41.0%

Luis Robert Jr.

40.5%

Andres Gimenez

40.0%

Amed Rosario

39.4%

 

Last season, Salvador Perez slashed .255/.292/.422 with 23 home runs and 80 RBI. He was selected to the All-Star game. However, in 2023, Perez had a chase rate of 47%, which is by far, the highest in his career. So far this season, Perez hits .352/.410/.626 with 7 home runs and 25 RBI in 25 games. Nonetheless, his chase rate is still over 40% this year.

 

Javier Baez hit .222/.267/.325 with 9 home runs and 59 RBI over 136 games in 2023. His OPS was below .600 last year and it didn’t look good. A high chase rate is certainly a big problem for him. Baez’s chase rate was 44% in 2023. By far, his chase rate is even higher and he now hits below .200.

 

In addition, Eddie Rosario’s chase rate was 43.5% and Ezequiel Tovar, who inked a 7-year contract extension with Rockies in March, had a chase rate of 42.0%. In 2023, Rosario was hitting .255/.305/.450 with 21 home runs and 74 RBI over 142 games. Well, Rosario’s stats didn’t look very bad. Nonetheless, Tovar’s OPS was below .700 and he was struck out more than 160 times. In 2024, Rosario’s chase rate drops to below 40%. But Tovar’s chase rate hasn’t changed much.

 

Moreover, Nick Castellanos slashed .272/.311/.476 with 29 home runs and 106 RBI. He finished the season with a career-high 106 RBI, nevertheless, he had 185 strikeouts, which were his career high as well. Castellanos’ chase rate was 41% in 2023 and it’s the first time that he finished a season with a chase rate over 40%. By far, Castellanos is hitting just .177/.233/.198 and his chase rate is getting higher.

 

Finally, Luis Robert Jr.’s chase rate was over 40% and Andres Gimenez had a chase rate of 40%. Luis Robert Jr. was selected to the All-Star game in 2023 and he hit .264/.315/.542 with 38 home runs and 80 RBI over 145 games. Well, for Luis Robert Jr., it wasn’t a bad season, but he was struck out 172 times. And Gimenez finished the 2023 season with an OPS below. 750.

 

Looking at those players who had a chase rate of 40% or higher in 2023, Luis Robert Jr. was the only one who had an OPS over .800. However, Javier Baez’s OPS was below .600, and Tovar’s OPS was below .700. By far this season, Luis Robert Jr., Eddie Rosario and Andres Gimenez each have a chase rate below 40%. Nonetheless, their hitting performances aren’t as good as they were in 2023. Interestingly, Salvador Perez’s chase rate is still over 40%, but his K% drops a lot and he now has an OPS over 1.000. It’s the first month of the 2024 season. It will certainly be worthwhile to see if those players are becoming more disciplined through the season.

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