6/19/2024

Good fastballs?


In mid-May, I watched a video on YouTube. A journalist was interviewed and he talked about a book that he wrote. He indicated that a great pitcher’s four-seam fastball. That pitcher’s four-seam fastballs rarely reach 95 mph or higher. However, opponents couldn’t hit well against that pitcher’s four-seamers.

 

After watching the video, I began to think about a question. By far this season, which pitchers have effectively used his fastballs with a velocity of 95 mph or lower?

 

To understand a little bit more, I decided to check on the statcast website.

 

Batting Average Against (Four-seam Fastball, Velocity<=95 mph, ~2024.06.18, min pitches: 300)

Player

BAA

Alex Vesia

.106

Aaron Nola

.125

Ronel Blanco

.161

Seth Lugo

.169

Shota Imanaga

.195

Kutter Crawford

.196

Lance Lynn

.200

 

Firstly, Alex Vesia has been one of the most reliable pitchers in the Dodgers bullpen. He now owns a 1.10 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP over 32.2 innings. Vesia uses his four-seamer more than 60% of the time. Most of the time, those four-seamers don’t reach 95 mph. When Vesia’s four-seam fastballs are 95 mph or lower, opponents’ batting average is just .106.

 

Meanwhile, Aaron Nola uses his four-seamers around 25% of the time this season. The average velocity of his four-seamers is below 92 mph. However, it’s not easy to hit well against his 4-seamers. Opponents only hit .125 against Nola’s four-seam fastballs.

 

At the same time, Ronel Blanco uses his four-seamers more than 35% of the time. His four-seamers rarely reach 95 mph, nonetheless, opponents’ batting average against his four-seam fastballs, which are 95 mph or lower, is below .170. In the meantime, Seth Lugo has been fantastic this season. He now has a 2.40 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP over 97.1 innings. His four-seamer usage is below 25% and most of the time, those four-seamers don’t reach 95 mph. Opponents only hit .169 against Lugo’s four-seamers that are 95 mph or lower.

 

Moreover, signing Shota Imanaga could be one of the great decisions that the Cubs front office made during the offseason. He already made 13 starts, posting a 1.89 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP over 76 innings. Imanaga doesn’t throw really hard and the average velocity of his four-seamers average is actually below 92 mph. Nonetheless, his four-seamer is one of the most difficult pitches to hit. Imanaga uses his four-seam fastballs more than 55% of the time and opponents’ batting average against his four-seamer is below .200. Furthermore, Kutter Crawford’s four-seamers never reach 95 mph so far this season. It works well even though he doesn't throw it hard. Opponents hit below .200 against his four-seamers.

 

Batting Average Against (Two-seam Fastball/Sinker, Velocity<=95 mph, ~2024.06.18, min pitches: 300)

Player

BAA

Miles Mikolas

.149

Javier Assad

.198

Dane Dunning

.207

Ranger Suarez

.209

Sean Manaea

.214

 

In addition, let’s look at some pitchers who effectively use sinkers (2-seam fastballs) that rarely reach 95 mph. Miles Mikolas was the 2024 Opening Day starter for the St. Louis Cardinals. He already made 15 starts. Now, Mikolas has a 4.59 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 84.1 innings. Mikolas uses his sinker around 24% of the time in 2024 and his sinkers rarely reach 95 mph so far this season. When Mikolas’ sinkers are 95 mph or lower, opponents’ batting average is below .200.

 

Javier Assad only made 10 starts last season and this year, he already made 15 starts with a 2.75 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. His sinker usage increases from 30.6% to 36.1%. And interestingly, the average velocity of his sinkers actually drops from 92.7 mph to 91.7 mph. But, opponents can’t hit well against his sinkers with a batting average below .200.

 

Finally, Ranger Suarez has a fantastic season thus far, posting a 1.77 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP over 86.1 innings. His sinker usage increases to more than 30% and the average velocity of his sinkers is below 91 mph. Opponents’ batting average is below .210 against his sinker.

 

Many pitchers are throwing hard these days. Nevertheless, throwing hard doesn’t guarantee success in the big leagues. Some pitchers have shown that they can effectively use their four-seamers or two-seamers (sinkers) even though they don’t throw really hard. Interestingly, Vesia’s four-seamers rarely reach 95 mph in 2024 and opponents don’t hit well. Additionally, Shota Imanaga uses his four-seamer more than 50% of the time. His four-seamer doesn’t reach 95 mph but it’s one of the most difficult pitches to hit. Moreover, Assad uses his sinker more than 30% of the time this season and his sinkers aren’t easy to hit.

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