A few weeks ago, I watched a baseball game on TV and Walker Buehler was pitching for the Dodgers. From 2018 to 2021, he was one of the most dominant pitchers in the majors. And the Dodgers heavily relied on him and he didn’t let the team down. In particular, he was fantastic in the 2020 postseason. Nonetheless, he underwent 2nd Tommy John surgery in 2022.
Eventually, he comes back to the mound in 2024. However, this season, Walker Buehler doesn’t look like the Walker Buehler that we saw from 2018 to 2021. By far this season, he made 8 starts for the Dodgers, posting a 5.84 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP over 37 innings. I’m curious why Walker Buehler hasn’t pitched well this season. And I decided to check on the statcast website to see if there’s something interesting.
Back in 2021, Walker Buehler was selected to the All-Star game and finished 4th in the NL Cy Young voting. He made 33 starts in 2021, posting a 2.47 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP over 207.2 innings. Moreover, he threw 212 strikeouts. In that season, Buehler mostly threw his four-seam fastball with a usage over 40%. At the same time, he threw his cutter, sweeper and knuckle curve with a usage more than 10 % of the time each. The next season, Buehler made 12 starts for the Dodgers, posting a 4.02 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP over 65 innings. In 2022, Buehler’s usage of four-seam fastball decreased and he relied more on his cutter. Buehler’s cutter usage increased from 16% to 25%. This season, Buehler mainly throws his four-seamer and cutter with a usage over 20% each. Furthermore, his sinker usage is 19.8% and he throws his knuckle curve 14.4% of the time. As we can see, Buehler gradually relies less on his four-seamer and his cutter usage goes up to more than 20%. But interestingly, he uses his sinker more often this season and he relies less on his sweeper.
In 2021, Buehler was one the most dominant pitchers in the majors. Opponents’ batting average against him was below .200 and opponents hit .201 against his four-seamers. However, in 2022, opponents’ batting average against him was .263 and this season, Buehler has a BAA over .300. As we can see, opponents hit well against his four-seamer. And this season, his knuckle curve doesn’t look good with a BAA over .360.
Now, let’s take a look at the pitch velocity of Buehler’s pitch arsenal. There are no dramatic changes in pitch velocity. The major difference might be on his knuckle curve and sweeper, both pitches are slower.
Finally, let’s look at spin rate. In 2021, Buehler’s four-seamers spun at a rate of 2472 rpm, on average. Nonetheless, the average spin rate of his four-seamers drops to below 2300 rpm. Additionally, the average spin rate of his cutters decreases from 2615 rpm to 2469 rpm. Moreover, the average spin rate of his knuckle curves drops from 2861 rpm to 2605 rpm. Also, the average spin rate of his sinkers declines to 2162 rpm.
As a Dodgers fan, it’s great to see Walker Buehler come back to the mound. Nevertheless, after recovering from the second Tommy John surgery, Walker Buehler hasn’t pitched well as he did. Opponents hit well against his four-seamer and knuckle curve. Walker Buehler was placed on the IL on June 19,2024. For the Dodgers, it will be important to identify the major reasons why Buehler hasn’t pitched well this season. It's clear that the average spin rate of several pitches has dropped significantly. Perhaps, it might be hard for us to see Walker Buehler pitch as he did in 2020 to 2021 again?
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